Feasibility of a human performance model in consequence management

Human civilization has always encountered unpredictable disasters as a result of natural events. Now it also faces the disasters caused by terrorist attacks. Governments must have consequence management plans in place to protect public health and safety, restore essential services, and provide emergency relief to affected businesses and individuals. Human performance models predict outcomes in complex dynamic situations. Such models can simulate disaster management procedures under varying circumstances. This work applies human performance modeling in a terrorist situation and evaluates possible uses of such models by first responders in practical consequence management applications. It includes a case study of an attempted terrorist attack --Abstract, page iv

Modeling Emergency Response: A Case Study

Recent events have increased the awareness of the importance of effective crisis response whether for a terrorist attack or a natural disaster. This paper describes and models the response to an emergency situation using IMPRINT Pro. This software is a Human System Integration (HSI) and Personnel Integration (MANPRINT) tool developed by the U.S. Army Research Laboratory. IMPRINT Pro is a stochastic discrete event network modeling tool designed to help assess the interaction of soldiers with systems to evaluate the systems\u27 performance throughout their lifecycles. The model includes resource availability, tasks to be completed, resource limitations, and task deadlines. The results include flow diagrams and performance metrics. IMPRINT models can be used for evaluation, what-if analysis, and training. The software is used to improve an organization\u27s performance. To demonstrate the benefits of using the modeling software outside of the Department of Defense, a case study of a combined anthrax and bomb threat made at a university is presented. The case study identifies the various first responders and their reaction, to the situation. The actual event was successfully handled and the procedures are modeled. The human modeling software includes the effects of external and internal stressors on personnel performance in pressure situations. The case study model includes the effect of stressors on performance and calculates time delays. Factors such as responding personnel wearing protective clothing while performing tasks are included. Tasks using various fine motor, gross motor, cognitive, and communication skills are modeled